Card Market: Buying After 17% Drop

Published: December 23, 2025

⏱️ 20 min read

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Table of Contents

The November 2025 Crash: What Just Happened

November 2025 delivered a sobering wake-up call to the sports card market: a tremendous 17% decline in grading activity that wiped out nearly all the gains from October’s brief rally. This sharp reversal—affecting both trading card games (TCG) and sports cards, with no segment spared—signals a market correction that many analysts warned was inevitable after the unsustainable boom of 2020-2022.

For collectors and investors, the knee-jerk reaction might be panic. But market corrections, when understood properly, represent some of the best buying opportunities in any asset class. The November decline isn’t a death knell for sports cards—it’s a reset to more sustainable valuations that favor patient, strategic collectors who can separate temporary sentiment from long-term fundamentals.

This comprehensive analysis examines what caused the correction, how it compares to historical card market cycles, which segments offer the best opportunities, and how savvy collectors should position themselves to capitalize on discounted prices while avoiding value traps.

Key Takeaways:

  • November 2025 grading activity crashed 17%, erasing all October gains and signaling a major market correction.
  • Modern rookie cards (2020-2024) declined 40-60% while true vintage pre-1960 cards remained stable with only 10% fluctuations.
  • Historical patterns from 1991-1995 and 2008-2009 corrections show quality cards always recover over 5-10+ year horizons.
  • Best opportunities target undervalued established superstars, graded vintage PSA 7-8, international soccer, and 2025 rookie class.
  • Market projected to reach $23.08 billion by 2032 (83% growth from 2024), making corrections temporary noise in long-term growth story.

Understanding the 17% Grading Activity Decline

Grading activity—the number of cards submitted to PSA, BGS, and SGC for authentication and grading—serves as a reliable leading indicator of market health. When collectors are bullish, they grade aggressively to capture PSA 10 premiums. When sentiment turns bearish, grading submissions plummet.

The October-November Reversal

October 2025: Brief rally across card market

  • Grading submissions increased ~8-12%
  • New product releases (Topps Basketball, Prizm Football) drove enthusiasm
  • Optimism around Cooper Flagg rookie class
  • Seasonal uptick heading into holiday season

November 2025: Sharp reversal

  • Grading activity declined 17% month-over-month
  • All segments affected: sports cards, TCG, vintage, modern
  • PSA turnaround times improved (less submissions)
  • Dealer inventories increased as sales slowed

Net Result: October’s gains completely erased, market sentiment shifted from cautious optimism to defensive posture.

What the Grading Data Reveals

Collector Behavior Shifts

  • Reluctance to spend $25-$50 per card on grading fees when uncertain of ROI
  • Focus on preserving capital rather than expanding positions
  • “Wait and see” approach before committing to new purchases

Dealer Sentiment

  • Dealers reducing inventory acquisitions
  • Tightening cash flow management
  • Discounting existing inventory to generate liquidity

Investment Thesis Reevaluation

  • Speculators exiting positions in marginal rookies
  • Flight to quality (established stars retain interest)
  • Modern card overproduction concerns resurface

Historical Context: This Has Happened Before

The 2025 correction isn’t unprecedented—the sports card market has experienced multiple boom-bust cycles throughout its history, with each offering lessons for today’s collectors.

The 1989-1993 Bubble and Crash

Boom (1987-1991)

  • Speculation driven by baby boomers’ nostalgia and investment hype
  • Mass production by multiple manufacturers (Topps, Fleer, Upper Deck, Donruss, Score)
  • Card shops proliferated, media coverage surged
  • Rookie cards selling for $100+ immediately upon release

Bust (1992-1995)

  • Overproduction destroyed scarcity premium
  • Speculation collapsed as reality set in
  • 80-90% value declines across modern cards
  • Thousands of card shops closed

Lesson: Mass production + speculative fever = bubble. When fundamentals (actual scarcity, genuine collecting demand) diverge from prices, correction is inevitable.

2025 Parallel: Modern Panini products have print runs 10-50x higher than 1990s equivalents, yet cards sell for similar or higher prices. Correction realigns prices with scarcity fundamentals.

The 2008-2009 Financial Crisis Impact

Crash (2008-2009)

  • Global financial crisis crushed discretionary spending
  • Sports card values declined 30-50% across the board
  • Grading activity collapsed as collectors prioritized essentials
  • Dealer consolidation accelerated

Recovery (2010-2015)

  • Slow, steady appreciation as economy recovered
  • Focus on quality over quantity
  • Digital marketplaces (eBay maturation) improved liquidity

Lesson: Sports cards are luxury goods that correlate with economic confidence. Macro downturns hit cards hard but create exceptional buying opportunities.

2025 Parallel: Inflation, high interest rates, and recession fears reduce discretionary spending. Cards decline but fundamentals remain strong (growing global interest, limited vintage supply).

The 2020-2022 Pandemic Boom

Boom (2020-2022)

  • Stimulus checks + lockdown boredom = unprecedented demand
  • New collectors entering hobby en masse
  • Card values surged 200-500% across all segments
  • Media coverage and celebrity involvement (Gary Vee, Logan Paul)

Correction (2023-2025)

  • Stimulus ended, inflation reduced discretionary income
  • New collectors churned out as novelty wore off
  • Prices corrected 30-60% from peaks
  • Market maturation toward sustainable fundamentals

Lesson: Artificial demand drivers (stimulus, lockdowns) create unsustainable price spikes. Corrections return prices to levels supported by organic demand.

2025 Parallel: Current correction is final phase of post-pandemic normalization. Prices approaching pre-pandemic baseline adjusted for genuine hobby growth.

Why the Correction is Happening Now

The November 2025 decline isn’t random—it results from convergence of multiple market pressures that created a perfect storm.

Factor 1: Modern Card Overproduction

Panini (2009-2025) and Topps (2025+) have produced NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL cards in quantities far exceeding historical norms:

Production Comparison

  • 1986 Fleer Basketball (Jordan rookie): ~5,000 PSA 10s in existence
  • 2018 Panini Prizm Basketball (Doncic rookie): ~25,000 PSA 10s in existence
  • 2024 Panini Prizm Football (Williams rookie): Estimated 50,000+ PSA 10s eventual population

Scarcity Erosion

  • Higher print runs mean more copies available
  • Grading creates illusion of scarcity (PSA 10) but populations grow over time
  • Modern cards’ long-term appreciation constrained by supply

Impact: As collectors realize scarcity premiums are artificial, willingness to pay declines, triggering correction.

Factor 2: Economic Pressures on Discretionary Spending

Macro Headwinds

  • Inflation: 2023-2025 inflation reduced purchasing power
  • Interest Rates: Higher rates make cash/bonds more attractive than collectibles
  • Recession Fears: Economic uncertainty drives conservative spending

Demographic Shifts

  • Younger collectors (Gen Z) have limited disposable income
  • Millennial collectors prioritizing home purchases, family costs over cards
  • Boomer collectors downsizing collections, adding supply to market

Credit Card Debt: Average U.S. household credit card debt at record highs; discretionary purchases like cards cut first.

Factor 3: Breaking Industry Decline

As explored in our breaks vs. singles analysis, the breaking industry’s decline is reducing demand for sealed products:

Breaking Volume Down

  • Fewer breakers purchasing cases
  • Lower case prices as demand falls
  • Reduced visibility and hype around products

Impact on Manufacturers

  • Less wholesale demand from breakers
  • Pressure to reduce print runs or lower prices
  • Ripple effect to secondary market values

Factor 4: Competition for Collectibles Dollars

Sports cards compete with alternative collectible investments that have gained traction:

Video Game Collecting

  • Sealed vintage games surging in value
  • Lower price points attract younger collectors
  • More approachable market than high-end cards

Pokémon and TCGs

  • Competitive gaming scene drives genuine demand
  • International markets (Japan, Europe) add liquidity
  • Crossover appeal to younger demographics

NFTs and Digital Collectibles (Niche but Growing)

  • NBA Top Shot, NFL All Day, Sorare
  • Appeals to crypto-native collectors
  • Lower transaction friction than physical cards

Impact: Collectibles budget fragmentation reduces per-category spending, pressuring sports card values.

Factor 5: Market Manipulation Exhaustion

The 2020-2022 boom attracted market manipulators who artificially inflated prices through coordinated buying:

Pump-and-Dump Schemes

  • Groups coordinate purchases to spike card prices
  • Create FOMO through social media promotion
  • Dump holdings on unsuspecting buyers at peak

Breaker Market Manipulation

  • Fake bidding wars in breaks to boost spot prices
  • Confederates winning breaks to claim “hot box” reputation
  • Manipulated randomizers to favor specific teams/players

Correction Reality: As manipulation schemes exhaust, prices revert to true market-clearing levels.

Sectors Hit Hardest vs. Resilient Segments

Not all card segments are experiencing equal correction. Understanding which sectors are declining versus holding value reveals strategic opportunities.

Hardest Hit Segments (-40% to -60%)

Modern Rookie Cards (2020-2024)

  • High print runs catching up to market
  • Speculative buyers exiting positions
  • Poor performing rookies (injuries, busts) cratering

Examples

  • Zion Williamson Prizm Silver PSA 10: Peak $5,000 (2021) → Current $1,200 (-76%)
  • Anthony Edwards Prizm Silver PSA 10: Peak $2,500 (2021) → Current $600 (-76%)
  • Trevor Lawrence Prizm Silver PSA 10: Peak $1,800 (2021) → Current $400 (-78%)

Unproven Mid-Tier Players

  • Second and third-year players without All-Star selections
  • Hyped prospects who haven’t delivered
  • “Next big thing” narratives that failed to materialize

Low-Numbered Parallels of Non-Stars

  • /25, /10, 1/1 cards of role players
  • Scarcity premium evaporates without sustained demand

Moderate Decline Segments (-20% to -40%)

Modern Superstar Rookies (2018-2022)

  • Established stars with proven track records
  • Correction from unsustainable peaks but retaining value

Examples

  • Luka Doncic Prizm Silver PSA 10: Peak $15,000 (2021) → Current $6,000 (-60%, but stabilizing)
  • Patrick Mahomes Prizm Silver PSA 10: Peak $30,000 (2021) → Current $10,000 (-67%, but stabilizing)

Vintage Hall of Famers (1980s-1990s)

  • Jordan, Griffey Jr., Jeter rookies
  • Broad collector base provides support
  • Less speculative, more genuine collecting demand

Graded Vintage Stars (Pre-1980)

  • Mantle, Aaron, Clemente, etc.
  • Limited supply cushions declines
  • High-net-worth collectors provide floor

Resilient Segments (-10% to +10%)

True Vintage (Pre-1960)

  • Museum-quality vintage cards in high grades
  • Extremely limited supply
  • Wealthy collectors and institutions buying

Examples

  • T206 Honus Wagner: Stable at $3M-$7M depending on grade
  • 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 8+: Stable at $500K-$2M
  • 1933 Goudey Ruth PSA 8+: Stable at $200K-$500K

Active Superstar Autographs

  • LeBron, Trout, Mahomes current-year autographs
  • Continuous demand from fans and collectors
  • Limited supply (exclusive deals control production)

Low-Population Vintage Keys

  • 1950s-1970s Hall of Famers in PSA 8+
  • Supply shock drives prices (few available)
  • Strong collector demand persists

International Soccer Stars

  • Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappé
  • Growing global soccer card market
  • Diversification away from U.S. sports

Strategic Buying Opportunities in the Correction

Market corrections separate speculators from collectors. Speculators panic-sell, while savvy collectors accumulate quality at discounts.

Opportunity #1: Undervalued Established Superstars

Strategy: Target proven Hall of Fame trajectory players whose cards have corrected 40-60% from peaks.

Examples

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo Prizm Rookie PSA 10: Peak $8,000 → Current $2,500

    • 2× MVP, NBA Champion, Finals MVP
    • Prime years ahead (28 years old)
    • One of the 10 best players in NBA

  • Mike Trout Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 10: Peak $25,000 → Current $8,000

    • 3× MVP, generational talent
    • Health concerns caused decline, but Hall of Fame locked
    • Limited supply (2009 product, low print run)

  • Josh Allen Prizm Rookie PSA 10: Peak $1,200 → Current $350

    • Elite quarterback in prime
    • Playoff success building
    • Significant upside if Bills win Super Bowl

Buying Thesis: Temporary sentiment overwhelmed fundamentals. These players’ career achievements support higher long-term values. Current prices offer 30-50% discount to fair value.

Opportunity #2: 2025 Rookie Class at Suppressed Prices

Strategy: The 2025 draft class is entering the market during correction, creating entry-point advantages.

Examples

  • Cooper Flagg pre-rookie and rookie cards: Market uncertainty suppressing prices below where they’d trade in normal market
  • Cam Ward rookie cards: #1 pick premium not fully priced in due to macro headwinds
  • Travis Hunter rookie cards: Historic two-way ability undervalued relative to potential

Buying Thesis: If these rookies succeed, purchasing during correction beats buying after they establish themselves in Year 2-3. Risk: bust potential, but discount compensates.

Opportunity #3: Graded Vintage in “Sweet Spot” Grades

Strategy: Target 1970s-1990s Hall of Famers in PSA 7-8, which offer better value than PSA 9-10.

Examples

  • 1979 OPC Gretzky PSA 8: $10,000-$15,000 (vs. $40,000+ for PSA 10)
  • 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 7: $5,000-$8,000 (vs. $25,000+ for PSA 10)
  • 1989 Upper Deck Griffey PSA 8: $600-$1,000 (vs. $3,000+ for PSA 10)

Buying Thesis: PSA 10 premiums are irrational (6-8x PSA 8 prices for marginally better cards). Corrections narrow premiums, benefiting mid-grade buyers.

Opportunity #4: International Soccer Cards

Strategy: Diversify into growing global soccer card market, which is less correlated with U.S. economic pressures.

Examples

  • Lionel Messi Topps Chrome Rookie: Stable demand from global collector base
  • Erling Haaland Topps Chrome Rookies: Young superstar with decade+ prime ahead
  • Kylian Mbappé Panini Rookies: French market + global appeal

Buying Thesis: Soccer is the world’s sport. U.S. correction creates opportunities to buy global demand drivers at U.S.-influenced discounts.

Opportunity #5: Vintage Commons and Stars for Set Building

Strategy: Complete vintage sets while correction suppresses common card prices.

Examples

  • 1972 Topps Baseball set: Commons down 20-30%, making set completion affordable
  • 1980 Topps Basketball set: Bird/Magic/Dr. J set attainable during correction
  • 1984 Topps Football set: Marino, Elway, Dickerson set accessible

Buying Thesis: Set collectors provide stable demand. Corrections disproportionately hit keys, creating ratio opportunities (commons become cheaper relative to stars).

Value Traps to Avoid

Not all “cheap” cards are opportunities—some are cheap for good reason. Avoid these value traps:

Value Trap #1: Injured Players with Uncertain Futures

Examples

  • Young stars with significant injuries (ACL, Achilles, back)
  • Career trajectory uncertain
  • Cards down 60-80% but may never recover

Why to Avoid: Injury risk is real. Career-ending or diminishing injuries permanently impair value. Only buy if discount compensates for injury risk (>80% off peak).

Value Trap #2: Draft Busts and Underperformers

Examples

  • #1 picks who didn’t pan out (Jamarcus Russell, Anthony Bennett, Markelle Fultz)
  • Hyped rookies who never developed (Darko Milicic, Greg Oden)

Why to Avoid: These cards have no recovery path. Prices may continue declining as collectors forget about players entirely.

Value Trap #3: Modern Overproduced Parallels

Examples

  • /299, /199, /99 parallels of mid-tier players
  • Illusion of scarcity but thousands of similar parallels exist
  • Print runs still too high for sustained premium

Why to Avoid: Supply exceeds demand. Corrections reveal true market-clearing prices, which are often 80-90% below peak.

Value Trap #4: One-Hit Wonders

Examples

  • Players who had one great season then regressed (RG3, Derrick Rose, Jeremy Lin)
  • “Greatest [X] season ever” narratives that didn’t sustain

Why to Avoid: Hall of Fame trajectory matters for long-term card appreciation. One great year doesn’t support sustained premiums.

Value Trap #5: Celebrity/Influencer Pump Schemes

Examples

  • Cards promoted by celebrities or influencers as “investments”
  • Coordinated social media campaigns
  • Prices spike then crater after scheme exhausts

Why to Avoid: Manipulation creates artificial demand. When pump ends, prices collapse below pre-pump levels.

Buying Strategy During Corrections

Strategy #1: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

Method: Invest fixed dollar amount monthly, buying more cards when prices fall, fewer when prices rise.

Example

  • Allocate $500/month to card purchases
  • During correction: Buy 10-15 quality cards
  • During rallies: Buy 5-8 quality cards
  • Over 12 months: Accumulated collection at average price

Advantage: Removes emotion, prevents mistiming market, builds positions systematically.

Strategy #2: Bargain Hunting with Discipline

Method: Create watch list of desired cards with maximum buy prices. Only purchase when market dips below targets.

Example

  • Target: Luka Doncic Prizm Silver PSA 10
  • Maximum price: $5,000
  • Current price: $6,000 (don’t buy)
  • Correction price: $4,500 (buy)

Advantage: Forces discipline, prevents overpaying, capitalizes on volatility.

Strategy #3: Buy the Dip on Quality

Method: Focus buying on established Hall of Famers and proven superstars during panic selling.

Target List

  • LeBron James rookies and key cards
  • Patrick Mahomes Prizm Silver PSA 10
  • Mike Trout Bowman Chrome
  • Giannis, Luka, other proven superstars

Advantage: Hall of Fame cards always recover. Buying dips beats trying to time exact bottom.

Strategy #4: Contrarian Set Building

Method: Pursue unpopular sets or players during corrections when prices are suppressed.

Examples

  • 1970s football stars (undervalued vs. baseball/basketball)
  • Women’s sports cards (WNBA, soccer) ahead of growth curve
  • Hockey cards (perennially undervalued vs. other sports)

Advantage: Contrarian positions benefit when sentiment reverses. Lower competition during accumulation phase.

When the Correction Will End

Predicting exact market bottoms is impossible, but historical patterns provide guidance:

Indicators of Market Bottoming

Grading Submissions Stabilize

  • 3-6 months of flat grading activity (not declining further)
  • Signals sentiment has found floor

Major Product Releases Perform Well

  • New Topps Chrome, Prizm, etc. sell out at retail
  • Strong secondary market for new releases

Dealer Sentiment Shifts

  • Dealers begin restocking inventory aggressively
  • Show attendance and energy rebounds

Mainstream Media Attention

  • Positive hobby coverage returns (major auction sales, celebrity involvement)

Economic Indicators Improve

  • Inflation moderating, interest rates stabilizing
  • Consumer confidence rising

Timeline Estimate

Pessimistic Scenario: Correction continues through mid-2026 (18-24 months total) Baseline Scenario: Correction bottoms early-to-mid 2026 (12-18 months total) Optimistic Scenario: Correction ends early 2026 (6-12 months total)

Most Likely: Gradual bottoming process Q1-Q2 2026, followed by slow recovery through 2027-2028.

Long-Term Outlook: $23 Billion Market by 2032

Despite current correction, long-term fundamentals remain strong. The Sports Trading Card Market was valued at $12.62 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $23.08 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.80%.

Growth Drivers

Rising Popularity of Sports Worldwide

  • Soccer growth in U.S.
  • Basketball expansion in Europe and Asia
  • Cricket in India (emerging card market)

Surge in Collectibles and Hobby Culture

  • Millennials and Gen Z embracing collecting
  • Social media amplifying hobby visibility
  • Cultural shift toward tangible assets

Digital Transformation and NFT Integration

  • Hybrid physical-digital cards
  • Blockchain authentication
  • Younger demographics comfortable with digital

International Expansion

  • European soccer card markets
  • South American soccer passion
  • Asian basketball (China, Philippines, Japan)

Scarcity of Vintage Supply

  • Vintage Hall of Famers in high grades increasingly scarce
  • Museum and institutional demand growing
  • Wealthy collectors competing for trophy assets

What This Means for Collectors

Corrections Are Temporary: Every major correction (1991-1995, 2008-2009, 2023-2025) has been followed by recovery and new highs.

Quality Wins Long-Term: Hall of Fame rookies, vintage stars, low-population keys always recover and appreciate.

Patience is Rewarded: Collectors who buy quality during corrections and hold through recovery realize exceptional returns.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did grading submissions drop 17% in November 2025?

The 17% decline reflects bearish collector sentiment as people became reluctant to spend $25-$50 per card on grading fees when uncertain of ROI. This followed a brief October rally and signals that collectors are preserving capital, taking a “wait and see” approach, and reevaluating investment theses amid economic pressures and modern card overproduction concerns.

Which card segments were hit hardest by the 2025 correction?

Modern rookie cards from 2020-2024 saw the steepest declines (40-60%), with examples like Zion Williamson Prizm Silver PSA 10 dropping from $5,000 to $1,200 (-76%). Unproven mid-tier players and low-numbered parallels of non-stars also crashed significantly, while true vintage pre-1960 cards remained relatively stable with only 10% fluctuations.

What are the best buying opportunities during this market correction?

Target undervalued established superstars whose cards have corrected 40-60% from peaks (like Giannis, Mike Trout, Josh Allen), graded vintage cards in PSA 7-8 grades that offer better value than PSA 10, international soccer cards with growing global demand, and the 2025 rookie class entering at suppressed prices during the correction.

When will the sports card market correction end?

Historical patterns suggest a gradual bottoming process in Q1-Q2 2026, with indicators including stabilized grading submissions for 3-6 months, strong performance of major product releases, improved dealer sentiment, positive mainstream media coverage, and improving economic indicators. Most likely scenario: slow recovery through 2027-2028 after bottoming.

Is the sports card market doomed long-term?

No—despite the current correction, long-term fundamentals remain strong. The Sports Trading Card Market was valued at $12.62 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $23.08 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.80%. Corrections are temporary market events, while quality Hall of Fame rookies, vintage stars, and low-population keys always recover and appreciate over 5-10+ year horizons.

Looking to expand your sports card knowledge? Check out these related guides:

Conclusion: Embrace the Opportunity

The November 2025 correction—17% grading activity decline wiping out October’s gains—is precisely the type of market event that separates successful long-term collectors from speculators who chase momentum.

History is unambiguous: every major sports card market correction has created exceptional buying opportunities for collectors with capital, discipline, and patience. The 1991-1995 crash allowed savvy collectors to acquire vintage Hall of Famers at bargain prices. The 2008-2009 financial crisis created opportunities to buy Jordan, Jeter, and Griffey Jr. rookies at discounts. The 2023-2025 post-pandemic correction offers similar opportunities today.

Key Principles for Success

  1. Focus on Quality: Hall of Famers, proven superstars, vintage keys in strong grades. These always recover.

  2. Buy Systematically: Dollar-cost average or buy dips with discipline. Avoid trying to time exact bottom.

  3. Avoid Value Traps: Injured players, draft busts, overproduced moderns, pump-and-dump schemes are cheap for a reason.

  4. Diversify Intelligently: Balance modern rookies, established stars, vintage Hall of Famers across multiple sports.

  5. Think Long-Term: Corrections last 12-24 months, but quality cards appreciate over 5-10+ year horizons.

  6. Keep Cash Reserve: Market may decline further before bottoming. Reserve capital for additional buying opportunities.

The sports card market is growing toward $23 billion by 2032, representing 83% growth from 2024 levels. Short-term corrections are noise in this long-term growth story.

For collectors with conviction, capital, and patience, the 2025 correction is a gift—an opportunity to acquire quality cards at 30-60% discounts to peak prices, positioning for substantial appreciation when the market inevitably recovers.

Don’t fear the correction. Embrace it.