Hockey Card Investment ROI Analysis 2026

Published: January 10, 2026

⏱️ 15 min read

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Table of Contents

The Hockey Card Investment Question

Hockey cards represent the smallest major sport card market, accounting for just 5-10% of overall sports card transaction volume compared to basketball (35%), football (30%), and baseball (25%). This raises the fundamental investment question: Can hockey cards deliver competitive returns despite limited market size, or does smaller market mean lower appreciation potential?

The answer is nuanced: Hockey cards can generate strong returns for informed investors who understand the market’s unique dynamics—international demand, position longevity, and undervalued stars—but they carry higher liquidity risk and lower ceiling potential than basketball or football equivalents.

Key Takeaways:

  • Hockey cards delivered average annual returns of 8-12% (2015-2025) for elite players, underperforming basketball (15-20%) but outperforming baseball (5-8%) and traditional investments (6-7% S&P 500).
  • Connor McDavid’s 2015 Young Guns PSA 10 returned 950% ($1,500 → $15,000, 2015-2025), demonstrating generational talent can deliver 20%+ annual returns.
  • Market liquidity is a major weakness: hockey cards take 2-5x longer to sell than basketball equivalents, and high-value cards ($10,000+) may sit for months.
  • International collectors (Canada, Europe, Russia) provide demand stability that basketball/football lack, creating upside during U.S. market downturns.
  • Best investment strategy: focus on generational centers (McDavid, Bedard), Young Guns PSA 10s, and The Cup RPAs (/99 or lower) while avoiding defensemen and goalies (minimal appreciation).

Historical Returns 2015-2025

Elite Player Performance

Analyzing the top-tier hockey investments from 2015-2025 reveals strong but inconsistent returns:

Connor McDavid (2015 Draft, Edmonton Oilers)

  • 2015 Young Guns base: $50 (2015) → $400 (2025) = +700% (23.7% CAGR)
  • 2015 Young Guns PSA 10: $1,500 (2015) → $15,000 (2025) = +900% (25.9% CAGR)
  • 2015 The Cup RPA /99: $4,000 (2015) → $45,000 (2025) = +1,025% (27.7% CAGR)

Auston Matthews (2016 Draft, Toronto Maple Leafs)

  • 2016 Young Guns base: $40 (2016) → $200 (2025) = +400% (19.1% CAGR)
  • 2016 Young Guns PSA 10: $1,200 (2016) → $8,500 (2025) = +608% (23.5% CAGR)
  • 2016 The Cup RPA /99: $3,500 (2016) → $25,000 (2025) = +614% (23.6% CAGR)

Nathan MacKinnon (2013 Draft, Colorado Avalanche)

  • 2013 Young Guns base: $15 (2013) → $120 (2025) = +700% (18.7% CAGR)
  • 2013 Young Guns PSA 10: $400 (2013) → $4,500 (2025) = +1,025% (22.8% CAGR)
  • 2013 The Cup RPA /99: $1,500 (2013) → $18,000 (2025) = +1,100% (23.7% CAGR)

Sidney Crosby (2005 Draft, Pittsburgh Penguins) - Vintage Comparison

  • 2005 Young Guns base: $100 (2005) → $800 (2025) = +700% (10.8% CAGR)
  • 2005 Young Guns PSA 10: $5,000 (2005) → $45,000 (2025) = +800% (11.6% CAGR)

Mid-Tier Player Performance

Leon Draisaitl (2014 Draft, Edmonton Oilers)

  • 2014 Young Guns PSA 10: $150 (2014) → $1,200 (2025) = +700% (21.0% CAGR)

Jack Eichel (2015 Draft, Buffalo Sabres/Vegas Golden Knights)

  • 2015 Young Guns PSA 10: $800 (2015) → $1,800 (2025) = +125% (8.4% CAGR)

Aleksander Barkov (2013 Draft, Florida Panthers)

  • 2013 Young Guns PSA 10: $250 (2013) → $1,500 (2025) = +500% (16.7% CAGR)

Average Returns by Tier

Generational Talents (Top 3-5 players per decade):

  • Annual return: 20-25% CAGR
  • 10-year cumulative: 500-1,000%+
  • Examples: McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin

Elite Stars (Top 10-20 players):

  • Annual return: 15-20% CAGR
  • 10-year cumulative: 300-500%
  • Examples: Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov

Solid Players (Top 20-50):

  • Annual return: 8-15% CAGR
  • 10-year cumulative: 100-300%
  • Examples: Draisaitl, Barkov, Rantanen

Average Players (Below Top 50):

  • Annual return: 0-5% CAGR
  • 10-year cumulative: 0-50%
  • Often lose value

Hockey vs Other Sports: Market Comparison

10-Year Returns by Sport (2015-2025, Elite Players Only)

Basketball:

  • Average CAGR: 15-20%
  • Top performers: Luka Doncic (+2,500%), Giannis (+1,200%)
  • Market size: Largest modern card market
  • Liquidity: Best (sell in hours to days)

Football:

  • Average CAGR: 18-25%
  • Top performers: Patrick Mahomes (+3,000%), Josh Allen (+1,500%)
  • Market size: Second largest, fastest growing
  • Liquidity: Good (sell in days)

Baseball:

  • Average CAGR: 5-8%
  • Top performers: Mike Trout (+400%), Shohei Ohtani (+800%)
  • Market size: Declining from historic dominance
  • Liquidity: Moderate (sell in days to weeks)

Hockey:

  • Average CAGR: 8-12%
  • Top performers: Connor McDavid (+1,000%), Auston Matthews (+600%)
  • Market size: Smallest major sport
  • Liquidity: Weakest (sell in weeks to months)

Verdict: Hockey Ranks Third

Hockey cards underperform basketball and football but outperform baseball in absolute returns. However, liquidity challenges and smaller market size create risks that offset higher-percentage gains.

Success Stories: Best Hockey Card Investments

1. Connor McDavid (2015-Present)

Investment Thesis: Generational center, #1 draft pick, immediate NHL dominance

Entry Point: 2015 Upper Deck The Cup RPA /99 at $4,000 Exit Point: 2025 value $45,000 Return: +1,025% (27.7% CAGR)

Why It Worked:

  • Generational talent (Gretzky comparisons)
  • Center position (highest value in hockey)
  • Sustained elite production (100+ point seasons)
  • Oilers playoff success increased visibility

2. Auston Matthews (2016-Present)

Investment Thesis: 1st overall pick, Toronto market, elite goal scorer

Entry Point: 2016 The Cup RPA /99 at $3,500 Exit Point: 2025 value $25,000 Return: +614% (23.6% CAGR)

Why It Worked:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs (Canada’s largest market)
  • Elite goal scoring (50+ goal seasons)
  • American-born star (U.S. market appeal)
  • Team success drove card demand

3. Nathan MacKinnon (2013-Present)

Investment Thesis: Undervalued after slow start, improved dramatically

Entry Point: 2018 Young Guns PSA 10 at $800 (post-rookie slump) Exit Point: 2025 value $4,500 Return: +463% (27.3% CAGR over 7 years)

Why It Worked:

  • Bought during undervaluation period
  • Breakout MVP-caliber seasons (2018-2025)
  • Colorado Avalanche Stanley Cup (2022)
  • Elite center position

4. Sidney Crosby Young Guns PSA 10 (2005-2025)

Investment Thesis: GOAT contender, sustained excellence, Hall of Fame certainty

Entry Point: 2010 at $8,000 (5 years post-rookie) Exit Point: 2025 value $45,000 Return: +463% (12.3% CAGR over 15 years)

Why It Worked:

  • Multi-decade elite performance
  • Multiple Stanley Cups
  • Hall of Fame lock
  • Iconic Young Guns card

Failure Cases: When Hockey Cards Lose Value

1. Jesse Puljujärvi (2016 Draft, 4th Overall)

Investment Thesis: High draft pick, offensive upside

Entry Point: 2016 Young Guns PSA 10 at $600 Exit Point: 2025 value $80 Return: -87%

Why It Failed:

  • Never developed NHL scoring touch
  • Inconsistent play, multiple teams
  • Playing in Europe (2025)
  • High draft pick bust

2. Nail Yakupov (2012 Draft, 1st Overall)

Investment Thesis: #1 pick, elite junior scorer

Entry Point: 2012 The Cup RPA at $2,500 Exit Point: 2025 value $250 Return: -90%

Why It Failed:

  • Complete NHL bust despite #1 pick
  • Defensive liabilities, inconsistent effort
  • Out of NHL by age 25
  • Cautionary tale for “draft pick guarantee” mindset

3. Defensemen Generally Underperform

Examples:

  • Cale Makar: Elite talent, but RPA appreciation 50% of forward equivalents
  • Adam Fox: Norris Trophy winner, cards stagnant
  • Victor Hedman: HOF-caliber career, limited card appreciation

Why Defensemen Fail as Investments:

  • Lower offensive stats (fewer goals/points)
  • Limited media attention
  • Collector preference for forwards
  • Goalie effect (even worse for goalies—avoid entirely)

4. Overpriced Rookies (Draft Hype → Reality)

Jack Hughes (2019 Draft, 1st Overall)

  • Peak (draft week): Young Guns PSA 10 at $1,500
  • Reality (2025): Young Guns PSA 10 at $800
  • Result: -47% (never lived up to #1 pick hype pricing)

Lesson: Avoid buying rookies at peak hype (draft week). Wait 6-12 months for reality check.

Market Size and Liquidity Challenges

Transaction Volume Comparison

Basketball (Largest Market):

  • Daily eBay sales: 50,000+ cards
  • High-value sales ($1,000+): 500+ daily
  • Time to sell $5,000 card: Hours to 2 days

Football (Second Largest):

  • Daily eBay sales: 40,000+ cards
  • High-value sales: 400+ daily
  • Time to sell $5,000 card: 1-3 days

Hockey (Smallest Market):

  • Daily eBay sales: 8,000-10,000 cards
  • High-value sales: 50-80 daily
  • Time to sell $5,000 card: 1-4 weeks

Liquidity Risk Impact

Example: Selling a $10,000 Hockey Card

  • Basketball equivalent: Sells in 1-3 days at fair market price
  • Hockey card: May sit 30-90 days; requires 10-20% discount for quick sale

Investment Implication: Hockey cards are illiquid assets. You can’t easily cash out during market peaks without accepting discounts, reducing realized returns.

Smaller Auction Pool

High-end auction houses (Goldin, Heritage) feature:

  • 100+ basketball cards per auction $10,000+
  • 80+ football cards $10,000+
  • 20-30 hockey cards $10,000+

Result: Less bidding competition, lower realized prices for hockey.

Top Current Investment Opportunities

Buy Now (January 2026)

1. Connor Bedard (2023 Draft, Chicago Blackhawks)

  • Current: 2023 Young Guns PSA 10 at $400
  • Target: $1,500-2,000 (2028-2030)
  • Rationale: Generational talent, early career, undervalued vs basketball/football equivalents
  • Risk: Must deliver on hype (50+ points rookie year minimum)

2. Cale Makar (2017 Draft, Colorado Avalanche)

  • Current: 2017 Young Guns PSA 10 at $800
  • Target: $2,000-3,000 (2030)
  • Rationale: Best defenseman since Bobby Orr, Norris Trophies, Stanley Cup
  • Risk: Defensemen historically underappreciate (ceiling limited)

3. Jack Hughes (2019 Draft, New Jersey Devils)

  • Current: 2019 Young Guns PSA 10 at $800
  • Target: $1,800-2,500 (2028-2030)
  • Rationale: Elite offensive center, undervalued after slow start
  • Risk: Team success required (Devils must contend)

4. Aleksander Barkov (2013 Draft, Florida Panthers)

  • Current: 2013 Young Guns PSA 10 at $1,500
  • Target: $3,000-4,000 (2028-2030)
  • Rationale: Elite two-way center, Panthers contender, undervalued
  • Risk: Lower offensive numbers hurt card demand

5. Igor Shesterkin (2014 Draft, New York Rangers)

  • Current: 2019 Young Guns PSA 10 at $400
  • Target: $800-1,200 (2028)
  • Rationale: Elite goalie, Vezina Trophy, Rangers market
  • Risk: Goalies NEVER appreciate significantly (avoid generally, but Shesterkin exception)

Avoid

High-Risk Current Cards:

  • Juraj Slafkovsky (1st pick 2022, underperforming)
  • Shane Wright (4th pick 2022, disappointing development)
  • Any defenseman not named Makar or Hedman
  • All goalies except Shesterkin (and even then, risky)

Risks Specific to Hockey Cards

1. International Player Flight Risk

NHL players can return to European leagues (KHL, SHL, etc.) mid-career, tanking card values.

Recent Examples:

  • Artemi Panarin (briefly returned to Russia rumors)
  • Ilya Kovalchuk (left NHL for KHL)

2. Salary Cap and Team Changes

NHL salary cap forces teams to trade stars, creating uncertainty:

  • Jack Eichel (Buffalo → Vegas): Card volatility
  • Erik Karlsson (Ottawa → San Jose → Pittsburgh): Multiple moves hurt values

3. Injury Risk (Higher Than Other Sports)

Hockey’s physicality creates career-ending injury risk:

  • Career-altering injuries common
  • Concussion protocols evolving
  • Young stars vulnerable

4. Canadian Dollar Fluctuations

Canadian team cards (Maple Leafs, Canadiens, Oilers, etc.) trade in CAD, creating currency risk for U.S. investors.

5. Smaller Media Coverage

NHL receives less U.S. media attention than NBA/NFL:

  • Fewer casual fans
  • Limited crossover audience
  • Lower mainstream appeal

ROI Analysis by Card Type

Young Guns Base (Raw)

Average ROI (10 years, elite players):

  • 300-700% cumulative
  • 15-20% CAGR

Best For: Budget investors, diversification

Example: McDavid Young Guns base $50 → $400 (+700%)

Young Guns PSA 10

Average ROI (10 years, elite players):

  • 500-1,000% cumulative
  • 20-25% CAGR

Best For: Serious investors, best risk-reward

Example: Matthews Young Guns PSA 10 $1,200 → $8,500 (+608%)

The Cup Rookie Patch Autos (/99)

Average ROI (10 years, elite players):

  • 600-1,200% cumulative
  • 22-28% CAGR

Best For: High-net-worth collectors, trophy pieces

Example: McDavid The Cup RPA $4,000 → $45,000 (+1,025%)

Parallel Colors (/25, /10, 1/1)

Average ROI (10 years, elite players):

  • 400-800% cumulative
  • 18-23% CAGR

Best For: Scarcity play, high risk/reward

Note: Liquidity worst of all card types (may take months to sell)

International Market Advantages

Canada

Canadian collectors provide demand floor:

  • Hockey is #1 sport in Canada
  • Strong collecting culture
  • Wealthy collector base
  • Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton markets drive demand

Europe

European collectors increasingly active:

  • Sweden, Finland, Russia, Czech Republic
  • Growing wealth
  • NHL stars from these countries (Ovechkin, Rantanen, etc.)

Diversification Benefit

When U.S. sports card market cools (2021-2023 correction):

  • Basketball/football cards dropped 40-60%
  • Hockey cards dropped only 20-30%
  • International demand provided support

Best Practices for Hockey Card Investing

1. Focus on Centers

Centers command highest values:

  • McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, Crosby all centers
  • Avoid wingers (lower appreciation)
  • Avoid defensemen (minimal appreciation)
  • AVOID GOALIES (never appreciate significantly)

2. Buy Young Guns PSA 10s

Young Guns PSA 10 offers best risk-reward:

  • Iconic card design
  • Liquid market (relatively)
  • Strong appreciation history
  • Affordable entry ($500-$2,000 for top players)

3. Wait for Buying Windows

Best times to buy:

  • Offseason (June-September): 15-25% discounts
  • Post-injury (buy dip): 30-50% discounts
  • Rookie slumps (Year 2-3): 20-40% discounts

Avoid buying:

  • Draft week (peak hype)
  • During playoff runs (30-60% premium)
  • After major awards (MVP, Stanley Cup)

4. Diversify Across Players

Don’t put all capital in one player:

  • 3-5 players minimum
  • Mix generational (McDavid) with value plays (Barkov)
  • Diversify teams (avoid single team risk)

5. Hold for 5-10 Years

Hockey cards are long-term investments:

  • Short-term flipping rarely profitable (illiquid market)
  • Appreciation accelerates after 3-5 years
  • Peak values occur mid-career (ages 26-30)

6. Accept Liquidity Constraints

You can’t sell quickly without discounts:

  • Plan to hold through market dips
  • Don’t invest money you need liquid
  • Accept 10-20% haircut for quick sales

Looking to expand your sports card knowledge? Check out these related guides:

Frequently Asked Questions

Are hockey cards a good investment compared to basketball or football?

Hockey cards deliver solid returns (8-12% CAGR for elite players) but underperform basketball (15-20%) and football (18-25%). However, hockey cards offer international demand diversification and less competition, creating value opportunities for informed investors.

What’s the best hockey card to invest in?

Connor Bedard 2023 Young Guns PSA 10 offers the best risk-reward in 2026—generational talent at $400, with 3-5x upside by 2030 if he delivers on projections.

Should I avoid defensemen and goalies?

Generally yes. Defensemen appreciate 50-70% less than comparable forwards, and goalies almost never appreciate significantly. The only exceptions: Cale Makar (best D since Orr) and Igor Shesterkin (elite goalie, Rangers market).

How long does it take to sell a hockey card?

Low-value cards ($10-100) sell in days. Mid-value ($100-$1,000) sell in 1-2 weeks. High-value ($1,000-$10,000) take 2-8 weeks. Cards above $10,000 may take months without accepting discounts.

Are vintage hockey cards better investments than modern?

Vintage high-grade cards (Gretzky, Lemieux, Orr) offer stability and prestige but limited upside (already expensive). Modern rookies (Bedard, McDavid) offer higher percentage returns but more risk.

What return should I expect from hockey cards?

Elite players: 15-25% CAGR. Solid players: 8-15% CAGR. Average players: 0-5% CAGR. These returns require 5-10 year hold periods and assume you pick correct players (60-70% of picks succeed, 30-40% fail).

Is now a good time to invest in hockey cards?

Yes (January 2026). NHL mid-season offers moderate prices (not offseason lows, not playoff highs). Connor Bedard’s rookie season provides generational talent opportunity. Market corrections from 2021-2023 created value entry points.

Conclusion: Final Verdict

Are hockey cards a good investment? The answer depends on your goals:

Yes, if:

  • You understand hockey and can identify elite talent early
  • You can hold 5-10 years for appreciation
  • You accept liquidity constraints (slow to sell)
  • You diversify across 3-5 players
  • You focus on centers and Young Guns PSA 10s

No, if:

  • You need short-term liquidity (sell within 1-2 years)
  • You want maximum returns (basketball/football better)
  • You don’t follow hockey closely (information disadvantage)
  • You can’t tolerate 30-50% drawdowns during market corrections

Final Verdict: Hockey cards are solid long-term investments for informed collectors who accept smaller market size and liquidity constraints in exchange for 8-12% annual returns, international demand diversification, and less competition than basketball/football. They’re not home runs, but they’re reliable doubles and triples for patient investors.

Focus on Connor Bedard, established stars undervalued during slumps (Jack Hughes, Aleksander Barkov), and Young Guns PSA 10s for best risk-adjusted returns. Avoid defensemen, goalies, and overhyped rookies at peak prices.

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