Sports Card Market Report: January 2026

Published: January 10, 2026

⏱️ 15 min read

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Table of Contents

January 2026 Market Overview

January 2026 presents a transitional market for sports card collectors and investors. The NFL playoffs dominate short-term attention while NBA and NHL regular seasons continue, and baseball enters its quiet offseason period before spring training.

Key Market Indicators

  • Overall Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic
  • Transaction Volume: Down 8% vs. December (typical post-holiday decline)
  • Average Sale Price: Up 3% month-over-month for cards $1,000+
  • Grading Submissions: Down 15% (January slowdown)
  • New Releases: Limited (between football and baseball seasons)

Flight to Quality Continues: High-grade vintage and elite modern rookies outperform mid-tier cards by 20-30%. PSA 10 population scarcity drives premiums.

Position Value Hierarchy: Quarterbacks continue commanding 40-50% market share in football, while basketball shows more balanced distribution across positions.

Fanatics Transition: The industry adapts to Fanatics’ NFL and MLB licensing takeover, creating uncertainty around product releases and parallel structures.

Key Takeaways:

  • NFL playoff performers see 30-60% short-term spikes: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy cards surging with postseason success.
  • Roki Sasaki signing with Dodgers (January 17) drove 200%+ gains on Japanese rookie cards—market expecting 2026 MLB rookie sensation.
  • Victor Wembanyama continues dominance, with his Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 climbing to $850 (up 25% month-over-month) as he cements ROY status.
  • Tom Brady Hall of Fame eligibility (2028) drives steady appreciation of rookie autos—2000 Contenders Ticket Auto PSA 9 reached $2.9M in private sale.
  • Buy opportunities: NFL offseason begins February 1—expect 20-30% declines on eliminated playoff teams and retired players.

Baseball Card Market Update

Market Sentiment: Quiet but Stable

January is baseball’s slowest market month—no games, no drafts, minimal news. However, Hall of Fame voting (announced January 21) and offseason signings create targeted opportunities.

Roki Sasaki (Los Angeles Dodgers)

  • Signed January 17 with Dodgers
  • Japanese cards surged 200-300% on signing news
  • 2024 NPB rookies: $50 → $150+
  • Pre-rookie autos: $200 → $600+
  • Market pricing him as potential ace/ROY contender

Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers)

  • Sustained value after record 2024 season
  • 2018 Bowman Chrome Superfractor 1/1: Steady at $850K
  • Prizm PSA 10: $2,500 (up 12% from December)
  • DH/pitching return in 2026 driving optimism

Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates)

  • 2024 NL ROY maintains strong market
  • Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 10: $1,200 (up 8%)
  • Sophomore season expectations high
  • Collector favorite for young pitching

Free Agent Uncertainty

  • Unsigned free agents seeing 10-15% declines
  • Market awaits team announcements
  • Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Santander affected

Retired Veterans (Non-HOF)

  • Post-career cards cooling
  • 2020-2021 pandemic purchases correcting
  • Mid-tier stars down 20-30% from peaks

Key Sales

  • 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 8: $525,000 (January 8)
  • 2018 Shohei Ohtani Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 10: $3,200 (January 12)
  • 2024 Paul Skenes Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 10: $1,150 (January 14)

What to Watch

  • Hall of Fame Announcements (January 21): Ichiro likely first-ballot inductee, driving Japanese card interest
  • Spring Training (mid-February): Market awakens with roster news
  • Prospect Rankings: Baseball America/MLB Pipeline top 100s drive Bowman Chrome demand

Basketball Card Market Update

Market Sentiment: Strong and Growing

Basketball maintains the strongest modern card market, driven by global appeal, young stars, and diverse collecting base.

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)

  • ROY campaign driving steady gains
  • Prizm Silver PSA 10: $850 (up 25% from December)
  • Prizm Base PSA 10: $180 (up 30%)
  • Select Concourse PSA 10: $120 (up 40%)
  • Every game reinforces generational talent narrative

Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks)

  • MVP-caliber season (30+ PPG)
  • 2018 Prizm Silver PSA 10: $4,200 (up 15%)
  • Logoman 1/1s consistently trading $1.5M-$2M
  • Prime career years (age 26) justify sustained demand

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder)

  • Breakout sophomore season after injury-lost rookie year
  • 2022 Prizm Silver PSA 10: $380 (up 60% in 30 days)
  • OKC’s top-tier record elevating all Thunder cards
  • Market repricing his ceiling

Scoot Henderson (Portland Trail Blazers)

  • Improved play driving recovery from disappointing rookie year
  • 2023 Prizm Silver PSA 10: $95 (up 25%)
  • Still 60% below draft hype prices—potential value play

Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans)

  • Injury concerns persist
  • 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10: $1,800 (down 20% from peak)
  • Market losing patience with health issues

LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets)

  • Inconsistent play and team struggles
  • 2020 Prizm Silver PSA 10: $650 (down 15%)
  • Hype deflating but talent remains

Key Sales

  • 2003 LeBron James Exquisite Patch Auto BGS 9: $5.2M (January 4, auction record)
  • 2023 Victor Wembanyama Prizm Silver PSA 10: $875 (January 9)
  • 2018 Luka Doncic National Treasures Logoman 1/1: $1.9M (January 15, private)

What to Watch

  • All-Star Weekend (February 16-18): Voting and rosters drive short-term spikes
  • Trade Deadline (February 6): Player movement creates volatility
  • MVP Race: Jokic, Doncic, Giannis, SGA narratives affect cards

Football Card Market Update

Market Sentiment: Peak Playoff Hype

NFL playoffs create the year’s highest football card prices. Performing QBs and breakout stars surge while eliminated teams decline.

Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)

  • Playoff success continuing 2024 momentum
  • 2022 Prizm Silver PSA 10: $220 (up 55% in January)
  • 2022 Optic Auto PSA 10: $1,200 (up 40%)
  • Mr. Irrelevant narrative + winning = perfect storm

Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)

  • MVP-caliber playoff performances
  • 2018 Prizm Silver PSA 10: $380 (up 30%)
  • Contenders Ticket Auto PSA 10: $2,800 (up 25%)
  • Prime career, playoff success = sustained demand

Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)

  • Playoff resurgence after early-career failures
  • 2018 Prizm Silver PSA 10: $420 (up 35%)
  • Proving doubters wrong narrative

Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)

  • Rookie QB playoff success (rare)
  • 2024 Prizm Silver PSA 10: $180 (up 80% in 2 weeks)
  • ROY + playoff wins = long-term star potential

Eliminated Playoff Teams

  • Cowboys (Dak Prescott): Down 20%
  • Rams (Matthew Stafford): Down 15%
  • Texans (C.J. Stroud): Down 12%
  • Typical post-elimination cooling

Underperforming Stars

  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): Down 25% (injury, poor season)
  • Justin Fields (PIT): Down 30% (benched for Wilson)

Key Sales

  • 2000 Tom Brady Contenders Ticket Auto PSA 9: $2.9M (January 6, private)
  • 2017 Patrick Mahomes National Treasures Logoman 1/1: $1.5M (January 11)
  • 2024 Jayden Daniels Prizm Silver PSA 10: $195 (January 13)

What to Watch

  • Super Bowl LIX (February 9): Winners spike 50-100%, losers drop 20-30%
  • NFL Combine (late February): 2025 draft prospect hype begins
  • Free Agency (March 12): QB movement creates volatility

Hockey Card Market Update

Market Sentiment: Steady Growth

Hockey remains the smallest major sport market but shows consistent appreciation, driven by Connor Bedard’s rookie season and young star performance.

Connor Bedard (Chicago Blackhawks)

  • Delivering on generational hype (rookie leader)
  • 2023 Upper Deck The Cup Auto /249: $65,000 (up 18%)
  • 2023 Topps Chrome Refractor Auto PSA 10: $10,000 (up 25%)
  • Young Guns base card: $400 (up 30%)

Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)

  • MVP-caliber season, Oilers contending
  • 2015 The Cup Patch Auto /99 BGS 9.5: $540,000 (stable)
  • Young Guns PSA 10: $15,000 (up 10%)

Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)

  • Goal-scoring tear (50+ pace)
  • 2016 The Cup Patch Auto /99 BGS 9.5: $390,000 (up 8%)
  • Young Guns PSA 10: $8,500 (up 12%)

Underperforming Contenders

  • Teams missing playoffs see 10-15% declines
  • Specific players TBD based on standings

Key Sales

  • 1979 Wayne Gretzky O-Pee-Chee PSA 10: $1.7M (January 3)
  • 2023 Connor Bedard The Cup Auto /249: $68,000 (January 10)

What to Watch

  • Trade Deadline (March 7): Player movement affects cards
  • Playoff Race: Contending teams’ players appreciate
  • Four Nations Face-Off (February 12-20): International tournament driving interest

Top Movers: Biggest Gainers This Month

1. Roki Sasaki (Baseball) - +200%

Dodgers signing created instant sensation

2. Jayden Daniels (Football) - +80%

Rookie playoff success rare and valuable

3. Chet Holmgren (Basketball) - +60%

Breakout sophomore season, Thunder contender

4. Brock Purdy (Football) - +55%

Continued playoff dominance

5. Connor Bedard (Hockey) - +30%

Delivering on generational hype

6. Josh Allen (Football) - +30%

MVP-caliber playoff performances

7. Lamar Jackson (Football) - +35%

Playoff resurgence narrative

8. Victor Wembanyama (Basketball) - +25%

ROY lock, every game reinforces dominance

9. Scoot Henderson (Basketball) - +25%

Recovery from disappointing rookie year

10. Luka Doncic (Basketball) - +15%

MVP campaign driving steady gains

Top Decliners: Cooling Off

1. Trevor Lawrence (Football) - -25%

Injury, poor season, eliminated early

2. Justin Fields (Football) - -30%

Benched, trade rumors, uncertain future

3. Zion Williamson (Basketball) - -20%

Injury concerns, market losing patience

4. LaMelo Ball (Basketball) - -15%

Inconsistent play, team struggles

5. Free Agent Baseball Players - -10-15%

Unsigned veterans awaiting team decisions

Notable January Sales

Seven-Figure Sales

  1. 2003 LeBron James Exquisite Patch Auto BGS 9: $5.2M (auction record)
  2. 2000 Tom Brady Contenders Ticket Auto PSA 9: $2.9M (private)
  3. 2018 Luka Doncic National Treasures Logoman 1/1: $1.9M (private)
  4. 1979 Wayne Gretzky O-Pee-Chee PSA 10: $1.7M
  5. 2017 Patrick Mahomes National Treasures Logoman 1/1: $1.5M

Six-Figure Sales

  • 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 8: $525K
  • 2015 Connor McDavid The Cup Patch Auto /99: $540K
  • 2016 Auston Matthews The Cup Patch Auto /99: $390K

Modern Rookies

  • 2023 Connor Bedard The Cup Auto /249: $68K
  • 2024 Jayden Daniels Prizm Silver PSA 10: $195
  • 2023 Victor Wembanyama Prizm Silver PSA 10: $875

Buying Opportunities

Best Buys Right Now

1. Eliminated NFL Playoff Players

  • Buy February 1+ after Super Bowl
  • 20-30% discounts typical
  • Target: Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud (if Texans eliminated)

2. Baseball Offseason Discounts

  • Lowest prices before spring training
  • Target: Established stars, not prospects
  • Buy: January-February, Sell: April-September

3. NHL Non-Contenders

  • Teams missing playoffs see steady declines
  • Buy: February-March as elimination becomes clear
  • Target: Young stars on rebuilding teams

4. Second-Year Basketball Players

  • Post-rookie dip creates value
  • Target: Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, Brandon Miller
  • Buy: Now through March

5. Retired Veterans (Non-HOF)

  • Post-career cooling creates value plays
  • Target: Solid careers, Hall of Very Good players
  • Buy: 2-3 years post-retirement

Avoid Right Now

1. NFL Playoff Performers

  • Peak prices, 50-100% above September levels
  • Wait until offseason (March-July)

2. Post-Hype Rookies (One-Game Wonders)

  • Prices crash hard after reality sets in
  • Examples: Mid-round picks with viral moments

3. Injured Stars

  • Risk increases with each setback
  • Wait for return before buying

What to Watch in February

Key Dates

  • February 1: NFL offseason begins (buy window opens)
  • February 6: NBA trade deadline (player movement)
  • February 9: Super Bowl LIX (winners surge, losers drop)
  • February 12-20: Four Nations Face-Off (hockey international)
  • February 16-18: NBA All-Star Weekend (short-term hype)
  • February 19: MLB pitchers/catchers report (market awakens)

Storylines to Monitor

NFL

  • Super Bowl winner prices (sell immediately after game)
  • NFL Combine prospect buzz (late February)
  • Quarterback free agency rumors

NBA

  • Trade deadline deals
  • All-Star roster announcements
  • MVP race narratives (Jokic, Doncic, Giannis, SGA)

MLB

  • Spring training performance
  • Roki Sasaki MLB debut timeline
  • Hall of Fame induction ceremony plans

NHL

  • Trade deadline approaching (March 7)
  • Playoff race intensifies
  • Connor Bedard ROY campaign

Grading and Industry News

PSA Update

  • Turnaround times improving: Bulk submissions now 35-45 days (down from 45-60)
  • 2026 pricing: No changes announced yet
  • Population reports show continued PSA 10 scarcity for key rookies

Fanatics Licensing

  • 2026 NFL products launching Q2
  • MLB products replacing Topps beginning 2026 season
  • Parallel structure and product names TBD—creating market uncertainty

BGS/SGC Competitive Positioning

  • BGS maintaining sub-grade advantage for modern chrome cards
  • SGC fastest turnarounds (15-20 days bulk) gaining market share
  • Price competition with PSA continues

Investment Strategy for January

Short-Term (1-3 Months)

Sell:

  • NFL playoff performers (before Super Bowl)
  • NBA All-Stars (before All-Star Weekend)

Buy:

  • Eliminated NFL teams (post-Super Bowl)
  • Baseball stars (before spring training)

Medium-Term (3-12 Months)

Hold:

  • Young QB rookies (Daniels, Williams)
  • Victor Wembanyama (ROY lock, long-term star)
  • Connor Bedard (generational hockey talent)

Accumulate:

  • Second-year basketball players (post-rookie dip)
  • Undervalued veterans with playoff potential

Long-Term (1-5 Years)

Focus:

  • PSA 10 rookies of generational players
  • Vintage high-grade (pre-1980) key rookies
  • Low-population PSA 10s (scarcity drives value)

Avoid:

  • Running backs (short careers, rapid decline)
  • Defensive players (minimal appreciation)
  • Raw cards worth under $500 (grading required for appreciation)

Looking to expand your sports card knowledge? Check out these related guides:

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the best sports cards to buy in January 2026?

January offers strong buying opportunities for baseball stars before spring training hype (expect 10-20% increases in March), eliminated NFL playoff teams after Super Bowl (20-30% post-season declines), and second-year NBA players experiencing typical sophomore value dips. Focus on PSA 10 rookies of proven stars like Paul Skenes, young QBs like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, and Victor Wembanyama who continues cementing generational status.

Why did Roki Sasaki cards surge 200% in January?

Sasaki signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers on January 17, 2026, confirming his MLB debut for the 2026 season. The signing eliminated uncertainty about if/when he’d join MLB, while the Dodgers’ contending status and Japanese star history (Ohtani, Yamamoto) created immediate ROY and ace expectations. Japanese rookie cards jumped from $50 to $150+, while pre-rookie autos climbed from $200 to $600+ as collectors anticipated his debut.

Should I sell NFL playoff cards before or after the Super Bowl?

Historical data strongly supports selling before the Super Bowl. NFL cards peak during playoff runs when media attention and fan excitement maximize demand. Post-Super Bowl (February 1 through July), football enters its longest offseason, causing 20-30% average declines even for Super Bowl winners. Playoff performers like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson typically see 30-60% short-term spikes during postseason—capitalize by selling at peaks rather than holding through offseason valleys.

What happened to Victor Wembanyama card values in January?

Wembanyama’s Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 climbed to $850 (up 25% month-over-month) as his dominant rookie season cemented ROY status and generational talent narrative. His combination of elite statistics, highlight-reel plays, and unprecedented size/skill profile continues attracting both casual and serious collectors. Market consensus now treats him as long-term blue chip investment comparable to LeBron James’ early career trajectory, supporting sustained appreciation beyond typical rookie card cycles.

When is the best time to buy NFL cards?

The optimal NFL card buying window runs from February 1 (post-Super Bowl) through July (before training camp). This offseason period experiences 20-30% average declines as media attention disappears and casual collectors focus on in-season sports. Target eliminated playoff teams immediately after Super Bowl, retired players during offseason lulls, and undervalued veterans before August preseason hype. Conversely, avoid buying during September-February when in-season demand drives premium prices.

How does Hall of Fame eligibility affect card values?

Hall of Fame eligibility creates sustained multi-year appreciation cycles. Tom Brady becomes eligible in 2028, driving steady demand for his rookie autographs—his 2000 Contenders Ticket Auto PSA 9 reached $2.9M in private sale, up from $1.4M in 2022. Ichiro Suzuki’s likely 2026 first-ballot induction (announced January 21) drives Japanese card interest even during baseball’s slowest market month. Smart collectors accumulate 2-3 years before eligibility when prices are stable, then hold through induction for maximum appreciation.

Conclusion: Month Ahead Outlook

January 2026 delivered on typical patterns: NFL playoff hype drove football peaks, basketball maintained strength, baseball stayed quiet, and hockey showed steady growth. The key opportunity ahead is the post-Super Bowl NFL market decline—February 1 through July offers the year’s best football card buying window.

Basketball remains the safest modern market with diverse stars and global demand. Wembanyama’s ROY campaign cements his position as a long-term blue chip. Baseball’s Roki Sasaki signing created immediate excitement that should sustain through his 2026 debut.

For collectors and investors, January’s lesson is clear: follow the calendar, buy offseason, sell in-season, and prioritize position value (QBs, star guards/forwards, aces).

February Outlook: Expect 20-30% NFL declines post-Super Bowl, NBA trade deadline volatility, baseball market awakening, and continued hockey growth. The smart money is patient—wait for seasonal discounts rather than chasing playoff peaks.

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Note: This monthly market report will be published on the 10th of each month. Check back next month for the February 2026 market update.